Novick falls in line, embraces Merkley

In this morning’s Oregonian’s front page story about Jeff Merkley’s Senate primary victory ignored the candidacy of independent John Frohnmayer. Walsh casts the general election race as two-candidate match-up with Merkley running against Republican Sen. Gordon Smith.

Merkley should be so lucky.

The story also reports on Novick's backing Merkley and makes no mention of Novick's bitterly saying during the campaign that, if he lost, he would vote for Frohnmayer. (See yesterday's Red Electric post.)

Last night, all was forgiven as the conceding Novick said,“(Merkley) is going to be a great United States senator, and we’re going to help him.”

Could Novick's campaign remark to Willamette Week become campaign fodder for the fall?

"Merkley's major primary opponent once said he preferred John Frohnmayer to Jeff Merkley. I'm Gordon Smith, I'm trying to divide the liberal vote, and I approve this message."

By the way, the on-line version of the Oregonian story doesn’t include the quote from Novick’s concession speech. Like the print version, it doesn't mention Frohnmayer.

Will Novick endorse Frohnmayer?

If the results for the Democratic Party’s U.S. Senate nomination hold up over night, will a losing Steve Novick endorse independent John Frohnmayer over the apparent Democratic winner, Jeff Merkley?

Novick’s concession speech might provide a different answer from the one Novick gave in a candidate interview with Willamette Week last month.

If Novick sticks with what he told Willamette Week, he could throw his support to Frohnmayer, undercutting Merkley’s chances against Sen. Gordon Smith in the three-way race.

Here is the transcript of the Willamette Week interview of the four Democratic Senate primary candidates:

WW: Steve, who would you vote for [if you could not vote for yourself]?
Novick: I would vote for John Frohnmayer.
WW: He is not in this room.
Novick: (12 second pause) I have a very hard time answering that.
WW: You are going to have to make a hell of a lot harder decisions when you are on the floor of the Senate.
Novick: (31 second pause) I'd wait several weeks because I'd want to see whether Speaker Merkley continues to run the kind of campaign he has run against me ... [subsequent details omitted]
WW: OK, given what you know now.
Novick: Given what I know now, I would vote for Candy Neville.
WW: You like Frohnmayer [inaudible].
Novick: I think John Frohnmayer, with all due respect, has presented a thorough discussion of the major issues facing the country, and his positions are extremely progressive.

The Frohnmayer Factor

If you believe that the outcome of Tuesday’s primary for the Democratic Party’s U.S. Senate nomination will determine the one-on-one match-up against Sen. Gordon Smith, think again.

As things stand now, Oregonians will be left with a three-way race. The Democratic winner is going to have to deal with “The Frohnmayer Factor.” That’s the independent candidacy of John Frohnmayer, who is staking out a hard-left positions on issues near to the hearts of many Oregon Democrats.

Frohnmayer, who is an old friend of mine, has been virtually invisible since he declared his candidacy last fall (calling for the impeachment of the president). All the press attention has gone to the hotly contested Democratic primary race between Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick.

Neither has mentioned Frohnmayer. And the press ignores his impact. Note this current Talking Points Memo story. Not a word about Frohnmayer.

But after tomorrow, the three-way race will be on, and the press and the Democratic Party will have to get real.

In my view, and as much as I hate to say it, Smith is certain to win re-election as things stand now. Frohnmayer will peel off enough Democratic voters to prevent a Democratic victory.

Of course John is adamant he can win as an independent. He points to Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont as examples of successful Senate independents.

He adds that his name is well known to Oregon voters. Brother Dave is a former state attorney general and the president of the University of Oregon. John himself was chair of the National Endowment for the Arts under George H.W. Bush until Congressional conservatives, waging culture war, forced Frohnmayer out.

As much as I like John and his positions, he is engaging in wishful thinking. With no political base, he can’t come near to matching rival campaign coffers filled by Democratic and Republican contributors and by lobbyists.

The only question left is whether Democrats can persuade John to withdraw.

Who is the most persuasive: Merkley or Novick? And how could either of them make it worth Frohnmayer’s while to step aside?

How I voted

How I voted

“How I voted” should answer two questions.

The most common one is: for whom did I vote? I’ll get to that later.

The less recognized but equally important is: How did I go about deciding?

The answer to that is too complex to explore in depth, but it did not involve close readings the scattered quail bones and toad entrails. In a couple of cases I did give these methods passing thought.

(I’m a registered Democrat, so with the partisan races, I can’t help you Republicans. I’m not sure anyone can — at least not this year.)

I decided on several races based on my experience with the candidates and on discussions with respected and knowledgeable friends. For two Portland City Council races, I went on line and watched the Willamette Week interviews. Seeing how the candidates respond to questions can be as important as simply listening.

This year I lean to candidates who have “fire in their bellies.” Four of my choices hinged on that fire-in-the-belly factor. Below on my choices, I’ll put asterisks next to their names.

I’m leaning away from candidates who seem to have emerged from the party machinery or the bowels of government. Example: David “melting t-shirt earmarks” Wu. After five terms in office, he doesn’t seem to have made a ripple in Congress. I’m voting for his relatively unknown opponent Will Hobbs, who, amazingly, has been endorsed by both The Oregonian and Willamette Week.

So here are my votes:

President: Barack Obama (My view of Hillary hasn’t changed since I wrote about about her candidacy more than a year ago HERE.)

U.S. Senator: Steve Novick*

Member of Congress, 1st District: Will Hobbs

Secretary of State: Vicki Walker*

Attorney General: John Kroger*

County Commissioner: Deborah Kafoury

Portland Mayor: Sam Adams

City Commission, Position 1: Charles Lewis*

City Commissioner, Position 2: Nick Fish

City Commissioner, Position 4: Randy Leonard

Metro Commissioner, 6th District: Robert Liberty

Ballot measures 51, 52 and 53: yes, yes and yes.

Obama polls strongly against "McClone" in Oregon

An addendum to yesterday's post. Take a look at this Rasmussen poll. Obama is moving away from "McClone" in Oregon.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, Jeff Merkley is trying to use another Rasmussen poll to prove that he, not primary opponent Steve Novick, has the best chance of unseating Gordon Smith. The argument becomes less compelling as you read into the poll.

An then there's the John Frohnmayer "spoiler" potential that isn't even part of the Senate race poll. Frohnmayer, running as an independent, could split Oregon's sizable, and crucial, liberal vote.