Oregon ballot returns signal bad news for GOP

So far we have poll-driven coverage of this presidential campaign. But the polls could be wrong, which means the coverage could be wrong even though it is having an apparent band-wagon effect.

Could it all be built on fantasy election coverage?

Perhaps.

But here in Oregon some ballot counting has already begun. Not of votes, but of ballots returned by mail thus far. And the ballot-count doesn’t look good for John McCain or Gordon Smith.

This morning, the web site fivethirtyeight.com had an incisive analysis of what’s going on.

While the rate of ballot return is down over four years ago by 19 percent, it is down a lot more in Republican rural Oregon than it is in Democratic urban parts of the state.

That means that many Republicans are sitting this one out. If it is happening here in Oregon, it probably is happening elsewhere.

My guess is that conservative voters aren’t motivated to cast their ballots for McCain or, in Oregon, for Gordon Smith, who’s portraying himself as best buddy to high profile liberal Democrats like Teddy Kennedy.

I mean really!

The Smith strategy is back-firing. The only thing that might jar loose those conservative voters would be a surprise visit by Sarah Palin. Problem with bringing in the moose-hunter is that Smith might pay the price among rational, moderate Republicans.

He’s stuck in a political no-man’s land.

So our ballot count here might be proving those polls to be right after all. Voters aren’t buying what the Republicans are selling.

It's about time.